China extends free cancellation policy for flights to Japan until October 2026, despite forecasts predicting a slight decrease in inbound tourism to Japan in 2026.
Tokyo – In a move aimed at providing flexibility to travelers, Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, have announced the extension of their free cancellation and change policy for flights to and from Japan until October 2026. Initially set to expire in March 2026, the policy is now available for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, and covers travel up to October of the same year. This decision, which was made due to ongoing market uncertainty, will allow travelers greater flexibility in managing their travel plans between China and Japan.
The extension of this policy comes as the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) and other industry stakeholders are forecasting a slight decline in inbound tourism to Japan in 2026. According to data from JTB, Japan’s inbound tourism is expected to decrease by approximately 2.8% compared to 2025. This marks a slight setback following a strong recovery in 2025, which saw more than 42 million international visitors to Japan. However, the projected decrease is primarily attributed to reduced travel demand from China, which remains Japan’s largest source of inbound tourists.
In 2025, Chinese visitors made up over 20% of the total inbound tourism to Japan, but the demand from China has been fluctuating due to several factors, including government restrictions on overseas travel, economic uncertainty, and shifting consumer preferences. The recent challenges in the China–Japan travel market have been further exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, and the resulting decline in the volume of Chinese tourists has affected Japan’s overall tourism growth.
Despite this decline, Japan is looking to diversify its source markets and mitigate the impact of reduced Chinese tourism. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) has launched new initiatives aimed at attracting tourists from Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia. These include a focus on luxury and wellness tourism, as well as tailored travel experiences that highlight Japan’s unique cultural heritage and lesser-known destinations. Additionally, the Japanese government has been working to improve accessibility, with ongoing upgrades to transportation infrastructure such as high-speed rail links and airport facilities.
On the other hand, the extension of the free cancellation policy for China–Japan flights, while easing the burden on travelers, also reflects the continuing uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific travel market. As Chinese airlines face a slowdown in demand, maintaining flexibility in travel options has become a key strategy to retain customer loyalty and minimize disruptions. According to industry experts, the policy is expected to encourage more travelers from China to book flights to Japan, as they can now plan their trips with confidence, knowing that they can change or cancel their flights if needed.
Moreover, the forecasted decline in inbound tourism is not expected to lead to a major setback for the overall Japanese economy. The Japan Tourism Agency (JTA) remains optimistic, forecasting that the increase in the average spending per visitor will help offset the slight dip in the number of tourists. This trend of higher-spending tourists, particularly from European and North American markets, is expected to continue in 2026, with premium experiences and luxury travel becoming a growing focus for the Japanese tourism sector.
In conclusion, while the extension of the China–Japan flight cancellation policy offers much-needed flexibility for travelers, it also coincides with an evolving landscape for Japan’s tourism sector. The decline in visitors from China may pose a challenge, but Japan’s ability to diversify its tourist base and focus on high-value travelers will be key in maintaining its position as one of the world’s most sought-after travel destinations.