Asian tourism markets 2026 will be driven by China, India and emerging ASEAN demand, reshaping intra-Asian routes, connectivity, hotel performance and destination strategies for tourism boards and travel industry suppliers.
Asia’s big three – China, India and the wider Asian outbound belt – will be decisive in shaping how international tourist flows are redistributed in 2026. For the first time since the pandemic, the story is less about “recovery” and more about how Asian demand will rewire networks, influence yields and redefine source-market risk for destinations worldwide.
Asia-Pacific moves from recovery to demand centre
By late 2025, the Asia-Pacific had moved beyond catch-up. UN Tourism data show that international arrivals to the region reached around 90% of pre-pandemic levels in the first nine months of 2025, after growing 8% year-on-year. Other regional and industry estimates indicate that Asia-Pacific welcomed more than 611 million international visitors in 2025, surpassing 2019 in absolute visitor numbers and growing more than 10% year-on-year in the first half alone.
This rebound is happening in the context of a global upswing. International tourist arrivals in the first half of 2025 were 5% higher than in the same period of 2024 and roughly 4% above 2019, confirming that the sector has entered a new growth cycle rather than a temporary rebound. In that new cycle, Asia-Pacific is not just one of several growth engines; it is emerging as the principal demand centre – both outbound and inbound.
China in 2026: restored scale with a more regional footprint
China’s return as an outbound force is the single most important factor for Asian and global flows in 2026.
According to China Tourism Academy’s 2025 “Outbound Tourism Development” report, Chinese citizens made an estimated 146 million outbound trips in 2024, very close to the 155 million trips recorded in 2019. Before the pandemic, Chinese travellers spent about USD 254.6 billion abroad in 2019, making them the world’s top outbound spenders.
At the same time, WTTC projects that China’s travel and tourism sector will contribute a record CNY 13.7 trillion to the national economy in 2025, more than 10% above pre-pandemic levels, underlining the sector’s structural importance at home.
Taken together, the data suggest that by 2026:
- China will again be either the largest or one of the two largest outbound markets globally in both trips and spending.
- Short-haul travel will dominate volumes, benefiting Hong Kong SAR, Macao, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and Korea, where air capacity and visa facilitation have been restored fastest.
- Long-haul recovery to Europe, the Middle East and the Americas will remain more selective and capacity-driven, but when Chinese demand returns on a route, it will immediately influence yield management and product mix.
China’s position means that any change in its visa regime, geopolitical stance or outbound advisory can quickly redirect flows within Asia. The recent deterioration in China–Japan relations, for example, has already translated into warnings against travel to Japan, flight cancellations and a sharp decline in Chinese arrivals there – with analysts estimating up to USD 1.2 billion in lost tourism revenue. This illustrates how concentrated exposure to one Asian source market can become a vulnerability overnight.
India in 2026: volume growth and market diversification
If China is the restored incumbent, India is the accelerant. Its role in 2026 is defined less by absolute size and more by growth velocity and diversification.
Research and Markets estimates that India’s outbound tourism market will reach around INR 5.01 trillion by 2030, growing at a compound annual rate of 14.27% from 2024, and generating more than 50 million international trips. A McKinsey analysis suggests even larger long-term potential, with Indian outbound trips rising from about 13 million in 2022 to more than 80 million by 2040.
On the domestic side, India’s tourism and hospitality sector is projected to reach nearly USD 60 billion by 2028, driven largely by domestic travel and infrastructure upgrades. Major hotel groups are responding accordingly: Marriott, for instance, plans to expand from 48 to around 90 cities in India, with more than 150 additional hotels in the pipeline, explicitly linking this strategy to rising incomes, airport investments and the growing propensity to travel.
By 2026 this translates into several concrete effects on tourist flows:
- Stronger India–Gulf, India–Southeast Asia and India–Europe corridors, as airlines deploy more narrow-body and wide-body capacity on high-growth city pairs.
- Increased seasonality smoothing, as outbound Indian travellers do not always follow traditional Western holiday calendars, offering destinations an opportunity to level demand.
- Greater demand for mid-market and upscale products, including branded select-service hotels, apartments and villas, and for experiences that combine shopping, culture and leisure.
India’s growth also means that destinations traditionally reliant on European or US source markets are beginning to view India as a strategic hedge. For Asia, this is particularly visible in the Maldives, Thailand, Singapore, the UAE and increasingly in emerging destinations like Vietnam and Indonesia.
Beyond China and India: the rise of intra-Asian demand
The influence of Asian markets in 2026 will not be limited to the “big two”. A broader belt of regional markets is reshaping intra-Asian flows.
Data from OAG indicate that intra-ASEAN travel has increased its share of total international arrivals into Southeast Asia from 37% in 2019 to 45% in 2024, making regional travellers the single largest source segment for many destinations. ASEAN statistics confirm that visitor numbers to member states climbed from 26 million in 2020 to about 127 million in 2024 as recovery gained pace, even if some markets are still closing the final gap to 2019.
In parallel:
- Japan and the Republic of Korea remain high-spend outbound markets, particularly important for Southeast Asia, Oceania and European long-haul destinations.
- Emerging Southeast Asian economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are progressing from primarily inbound to dual inbound–outbound roles as middle classes expand.
- Asia-Pacific as a whole is seeing tourism’s economic contribution rise: WTTC’s 2025 regional report highlights sustained growth in both domestic and outbound spending, reinforcing the region’s role as a driver of global travel demand rather than only a recipient.
These developments suggest that in 2026 intra-Asian demand will act as a stabiliser. When geopolitical or economic shocks reduce long-haul traffic, the region’s own markets – led by China, India, ASEAN, Japan and Korea – will increasingly be able to sustain occupancy and load factors.
How Asian demand will shape tourist flows within Asia
Within Asia itself, 2026 is likely to be characterised by three main patterns.
First, regionalisation will deepen. Short-haul and medium-haul corridors such as China–Thailand, China–Vietnam, India–UAE, India–Singapore, Korea–Southeast Asia and Japan–Southeast Asia are expected to carry much of the incremental volume, supported by low-cost and hybrid carriers. The concentration of new aircraft deliveries in Asian fleets, particularly narrow-bodies, reinforces this trend by enabling more point-to-point connectivity.
Second, intra-regional hubs will consolidate. Singapore, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong SAR, Seoul and Tokyo will continue to function as both destinations and redistribution hubs, channelling flows from secondary Chinese and Indian cities into wider Asia and beyond. As schedules normalise and connecting times improve, passengers from Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities in China and India will gain easier access to secondary destinations around the region.
Third, travel purpose will diversify. Consumer research on Asia-Pacific travel trends for 2025 already shows a move towards more segmented and purpose-driven travel – including work-from-anywhere, wellness, events and niche leisure products. In 2026, this will translate into more frequent but shorter cross-border trips for specific purposes, from concerts and sporting events to medical procedures and education.
Global implications: Asian source markets as system shapers
The impact of Asian mega-markets will extend far beyond the region’s borders.
For Europe, Chinese and, increasingly, Indian travellers will remain critical to long-haul demand for key city break, shopping and cultural destinations. The pace at which air capacity is restored or expanded on China–Europe and India–Europe routes will influence not only visitor numbers but also seasonal pricing and product positioning.
For the Middle East, Asian demand is structural. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already targeting large flows from China, India and Southeast Asia as they expand visitor economies and hub functions; growth in these corridors will underpin both religious and leisure segments and support ambitious tourism targets extending to 2030 and beyond.
For the Americas and Oceania, Asian markets provide high-yield, long-haul visitors whose trip decisions are sensitive to visa policies, currency movements and air connectivity. As more Asian carriers and alliances open or restore trans-Pacific and trans-polar routes, flows from China, India, Japan and Korea will increasingly influence tourism receipts in destinations such as the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
In all cases, the direction is clear: by 2026, China, India and the wider Asian outbound ecosystem will not only contribute volumes to existing routes; they will help define which routes are viable, which seasons are profitable and which products are sustainable across the global tourism system.